Friday, March 2, 2012

20120303 Depth to All Inclusive 2 - Purpose and Resolution of Public Transport

20120303 Depth to All Inclusive 2 - Purpose and Resolution of Public Transport


Solvere is merely another committed Singapore citizen.
Only exception may be he commencing 2001 01 01 after detected the coming of crisis - (Real Economyinvested his longer than one decade of effort, resources to provide analysis and solutions to re-install Singapore's  efficiency, improve our chances of prosperity.

He did with his best knowledge and judgement.
Any error, improvement, Solvere bows to listen and will stand to correct, refine, improve.

Strategic Similarity to Singapore Flood

After two years of intensifying and proliferating of flood, we now realized Singapore has not updated topographical data of our tiny island.

But before such revelation, more than $3 billions have already poured in.
Therefore are we possible to get the most effective, efficient, economical design, drainage, waterway without we know where, how much, how slow or how fast water flow. 

Similarly, with speed of migrants influx unprecedented in human history ( First and Last Social Experiment of Mankind) , have we done our housing, jobs planning well?

If we have done it well, would we have such shocking surged of transport needs.

Holistic Cold Headed Approach we must

We need to be cold headed to derive optimal solutions.

This writer is not Conservative nor Socialist. 
This analysis and suggestion are not against or for the rich, the poor.
Solutions here will make Singapore more efficient, benefiting the rich, the poor, the government and the only exception may be not the opposition.

Solvere merely points out the symbiosis of diverse groups in modern societies, where tight coupling is the reality.

The profit and enjoyment of one depends on the cost of provision from the other.

Singapore is an export dependent nation. 
We do not produce significant portion of even our food.
Even egg production has to take years to raise the supply  by 7% (from 23% to 30%) of our demand during a period our population raise by 30 % (1 million) every 10 years.

When China, India surpassed Singapore's brains and labor.
When in a world where goods and services can be transported rapidly, economically.
Singapore as an export dependent nation, has to reduce cost of every key factor (rental, labor, transport.....)  in order to win even a tiny bit from the same pie of world market.

This, our governing party members are now sounding out with conviction, even though far too late into the problem as a government aspired to be unparalleled in superiority.

Public Transport is Key to Modern Economy

Transport is the key enabler to modern economy.
Transportation of people, goods and services are the core of modern economy whether agriculture, commerce, manufacturing, services (including conferences, exhibitions, gaming....)

Every trip anyone take, going to do something - whether flipping hamburger or swinging golf clubs,  selling Laksa or listening opera without exception creates economic transaction.

While private transport is necessary for the privileged, the minority.
Public transport is critical for the majority, who are less privileged.
Every privileged who is transported by private transport will need to be served by at least 10 who are by public transport - in the office or factory, trading floor or art galleries .
Each of these ten ultimately invest longer hours of travel and working more days to serve just one.

If we want to have cheap labor for the millionaires, then public transport has to be economical.
If we want to have attentive and speedy labor for the millionaires, then public transport has to be both speedy and comfortable.

Therefore public transport is not just key to the livelihood of the majority, it is also critically affecting the profit, reliability and joy enjoyed by the privileged - a traffic jam can severely impact the fine cuisine served by a Michelin Chef.

Public transport therefore is a critical element for our economy and ALL of our people.

The bus companies demand billions from national budget for their purchase of buses.
This is not just provision for the majority, but also supporting the enjoyment and profit of the privileged.

Therefore we must take holistic consideration.
May i suggest a two level approach.

Basic Management Consideration

As this is the first instance of demand from national budget to provide for a profit oriented company.
Is it critical to examine the following?
  1. Who detected and initiated the need of this injection ?
  2. Who quantified, justified, scheduled the quantum of this injected fund?
  3. How much dilution of the original shareholders of bus company by this injection?
  4. Who will manage, justify, audit the usage of the fund ?
  5. Who will maintain and provide the labor and consumables, maintenance and replacement for the operation of these asset ?
  6. If 4 and 5 is not by the provider of the fund (government), in what historical precedence these asset will be chosen prudently (recalling complaints about SMRT train-cars)  and will not deteriorate faster, sold off earlier, sold off cheaper?
  7. If 4 and 5 is by the provider of the fund (government), then do the provider has the access, the competency?
  8. If the provider has the access and competency, does she incur tremendous labors, expertise and cost?
  9. If this set a precedent, will not train operators, power generation and grid operators who demand also huge capital assets not have higher priority and more justification for similar but bigger fund injection request?

Strategic Consideration

As this is the first instance and may be a surprise to many, have we done the followings :
  • If such massive injection of buses are done, is our infrastructure able to take the immense load?  
  • Have we examined whether road tax, ERP, insurance, land rental expenditure and income and other tariff be a more direct, faster, easier cost reduction measures? (how much are the fees for operators of MRT, Kwang Hui Chiu Hospital..,,) 
  • Thoroughly, exhaustively examined operation efficiency and alternatives, cost component and cost reduction measures?
  • With immense effort of massive induction of migrants at unprecedented speed in human history, has corresponding analysis and plan for cost to society and escalation of  infrastructure been put in placed?
  • If such analysis and plan are indeed in place, has housing construction and geographical distribution of population and employment been planned?
  • If planning of geographical distribution of population and employment are in placed, then are all buses operating with full load both ways during peak hours and off peak hours or many empty buses during peak hours in returning trips and others leave in depot off peak?
  • If buses are full loads, then are not bus operators having higher returns from their operations, then fund injection from government is still needed?
  • If buses are not full loads on returning trips, many buses left in depot off peak, then injecting funds would it not discourage government from
Improving city planning and creating jobs nearer to home as highlighted.
[This is easier today, as more jobs are not in factories, but sales and services... which can be easily relocated to achieve efficiency of operations and transportation both together.]

to Prime Minister and then Minister of Transport Raymond Lim in 2007
together with macro and micro analysis and solutions
 Root Causes and Resolution of Critical Trouble of Land Transport

Elegant Resolution

Singapore is a small island with clear boundary and high population density that with good planning, it can be the most efficient in the world.

20110423 Singapore Unsurpassed Advantage

If we are the most efficient by ceaselessly explore ways of cost reduction, performance improvement,  would not our holistic competitiveness won international contracts and our economy thrives?

Prime Minister's announced at Davos, Jan 2008 on the escalating the integration of our national hardware by the "High Power Green Growth Panel
20070420 The Way Forward - Integration and Efficiency

This is the most significant way to capitalize on the above mentioned Singapore unsurpassed advantage.
Unfortunately it was led by TWO Ministers who have to take care of their own dominant interest.
Is it possible for them to derive any progress?
History has looked at us squarely !

Today, ALL  the three Ministers have stepped down. 
The three Ministries are led by ONE respected hand and two new entries. 
The chances of some progress is brighter, though 

the ultimate success still require 
an unbiased, competent and committed leader !

Singapore would have solved our problems, improve our efficiency holistically.
Efficiency is the necessary first condition for our economy in this competitive world.
Economy determined our social peace, our government's holding.

Would such patching of waterway, housing, transport be needed?

 solutions comes in humble forms - ignoring them can trouble not escalating, spreading, self-hurting, destructing......

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