Monday, January 28, 2013

20130129 State Singapore is In

20130129 State Singapore is In

PM admission in IPA yesterday showed that we have failed in our planning since 2001.

PM Lee admits govt lacked 20/20 foresight By May Wong | Posted: 28 January 2013 2145 hrs

He merely stated a symptom of critical lack, but not what is needed and how he is going to overcome.

What is not clearly stated is also that the policies have been focusing on short term indicators, housing transactions, figures on economic growth.
He did not clearly state he realized leading, governing a nation is NOT about the above, but about improving the life of Singaporeans, building a better Singapore. Ant this can only be by cultivating Stronger Singaporeans.
If the PM did not realize explicitly, our failure will not just continue, our failure will escalate beyond this setback we witness today.

Whenever there is a major setback, many will jump ship, while those on board may blame others, go against each other, or try to impress others he is running his own campaign, dissociating himself from the party that he runs for.
This is not just sad, it is sick, it is a manifestation of grave sickness.

We need to heal this nation.
Leading is beyond Governance, Economic Growth.
Governance is not about tax-collecting, subsidies.
Economic Growth is not about housing prices, transaction.

The key is to set a clear, profitable, achievable direction, so that all will fall in place and jointly work towards the goal, which will profit all, than jumping ship, than exposing, stabbing each other.


What i am sharing here are my personal inputs to our leaders.
I believe there are more, better ideas conceived, even conveyed to our leaders, i must respect and hope to learn from them, especially fellow country man who needs to be encouraged, respected, supported to get good ideas effected.

It is only these that we can together bring an about-turn for Singapore.
About-turn for Singapore is to stop Singapore in front of a cliff.
About-turn to stop us from falling into a worse abyss than the historical one of Red Indians of the America.

Red Indians after realizing their warmly treated visitors are against them, destroying them, they fought fearlessly.
Red Indians were described as barbaric.

We invited those who did not even plan to come and worship them as our savior.
How can we not be perceived as idiotic?

This tell us one thing - a nation can be destroyed earlier by man than heavenly planned.
Any fairytale by leaders asking audience to raise their hand to vote on how long will Singapore survive is irresponsible, if not naive.

This i hope will help leaders to become able, successful, outstanding leaders.

Root Cause of Singapore Demise

I am blessed by few great leaders, trained by Goh Keng Swee directly or indirectly. They empowered me, guided me, provided me opportunities, encouragement to carry out some of the tasks, that impressed Boeing, Airbus...

Unfortunately, one died in his young age of stress similar to Wong Kok Siew.
The other was called into office and heard his boss telling him: "KL, this company is so small, just need one of us, tell me what you plan to do..." KL, a very strong person went back to his office and cried, and left this national enterprise. He became MD of world leading aeroengine concerns, while this national enterprise open up big time in Penang, not Iskandar, not Singapore - would one day Penang overtake Singapore?

I believe all credible leaders would hold strong passion for their nation, their hometown, be it Ipoh, be it Penang.

I heard Mr Ngiam Tong Dow in NUS lecture, recalling telling Mr Liew Mun Leong - a dynamic leader, that Liew may do better in private sector than in civil service.

i, a person fully of naivity, cultivated a few good engineers. Knowing where they can be best contributing. So i presented one to Singapore Technologies Chief Tan Pheng Hock. We did not need more than three emails, Mr Tan told me he preferred foreign talent than this MIT fresh graduate - even our scholars are not given a starting point to launch his career !

Do we not conclude that our nation cannot draw any outstanding person to lead this nation, from tested institutions, e.g. civil services, from companies winning world competitions e.g. GLCs?

I am naive but not ignorant. I understand human nature.
I come to bring us these is not to discredict Tong Dow, Pheng Hock, or Chak Yam. But it is time for you to realize, that at your age, it is for your benefit to cultivate young able ones who are devoted to our nation building. These young able ones will be in time to secure peace for their old age than taking jobs away from them.
This is also to encourage senior able officers like Prof Tommy Koh, Kishore to cultivate more able young people this nation is in dired needs.

And if among them, those do not stand up and offer a seat to their mentor, e.g. Philip Yeo, at world city prize and let Philip find himself a seat at the far back corner, you know you have chosen persons that will do the same to you, when you run out of good ideas, when you fail.

It is time all the Institutions to focus on cultivating able Singaporeans to lead Singapore.
Those able, devoted retired Chiefs, we may have to recall them.

Is it some responsibilities we need to shoulder that our great founder has lost hope in our officers, our civil services, our people, so clearly that:
  1. Our PM did not engage our LKY SPP to study Policies, minister pay, floods, energy, even LKY has all the centers, and led by mostly foreigners.
  2. Our PM did not ask from Rajaratnam School for Foreign Minister, since most of them are foreigners, foreigners here that will not be invited to solve problems here.
  3. Our PM did not ask our Minister Mentor to see who he can field from those MM has been mentoring - since...
  4. MM himself said not eleecting George Yeo is a great loss, without telling the electorates that if you kill one, i have 20 more ready, that is my job, i have been doing, i have been successful in doing.
Can we blame him, since we also only look for foreign talents, even those foreigners we do not know where they come from, the world do not know even where they went to years after they left us? How can they be exceptional talent that we entrust our jewel into their hands?

Singapore is small, but our challenges are never too few, too small, to have more, able people that can help us to mount greater height than taking away our cushy jobs.
This is the state of our nation....

20130128 CNA - PM Lee admits govt lacked 20/20 foresight

PM Lee admits govt lacked 20/20 foresight
By May Wong | Posted: 28 January 2013 2145 hrs

This article is stored here, as this is a historical statement, just in case CNA may put them into archive, and readers may not be able to retrieve it easily, or same link.

SINGAPORE: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has admitted the government did not have 20/20 foresight, resulting in problems with inadequate infrastructure in the country.

He was speaking at the "Singapore Perspectives" conference on governance organised by the Institute of Policy Studies on Monday.

Acknowledging the problems of insufficient housing and inefficient transportation network, Mr Lee pointed out that the government was blind-sided by the outcome of some international events.

He elaborated that in 2000 and 2001, the 9/11 terrorism attack on the United States plunged countries into recession. Singapore dealt with a slow economy with minimum population growth and local housing prices went down.

But by 2005 and 2006, Mr Lee said the mood changed and the economy started picking up.

So, he said, the government did what it thought would have been appropriate then. It decided to make up for lost time by growing the population and boosting the economy.

He acknowledged that infrastructure like housing and transport didn't keep up with that growth.

Mr Lee said: "I decided that we should try and make up for lost time because you want the economy to grow. You want Singapore to make progress and you don't know how long the sun is going to shine. As it turned out, the sun remained shining for longer than we expected. So the population grew faster than we expected, our infrastructure didn't keep up.

"Should we have given ourselves more buffer and said let's build and be ready? I think in retrospect, clearly we could have done more. Could we have predicted that we would have five years where the economy would grow brilliantly and our population would increase so rapidly? I don't think we could easily have said that.

"Should we then have said, 'I didn't plan for this infrastructure, let's tell the businesses to go away and let's forget about the growth, we don't need the IRs, we don't need these extra jobs, we just stay where we were'. I think that would be very risky. So we went ahead.

"The strains showed up. It's quite instructive how they showed up. They didn't show up gradually, progressively but quite suddenly. When the global financial crisis came at the end of the decade, 2007/2008, we expected to go for a very deep dive.

"In fact in one quarter, we had minus 10 percent growth. Nobody talked about house prices, there was no shortage. HDB - we watched the market every day, the resale market was dead but we did the right thing with our Jobs Credit and other measures. We avoided a bullet, the world economy recovered faster than expected.

"In the middle of 2009, the wind changed...those of you in business, you would remember that in the course of two weeks, during one or two private property launches, somehow the wind changed. It's like the spring breeze touched your face and the market was off. By August, we were thinking of measures to cool things down and we've been trying to cool things down ever since.

"So we lacked that 20/20 foresight. Next time, we will try to do better, certainly to have a bigger buffer and not to cut things so fine. But I think it's very difficult to know, 10 years from now, how many you will need.

"Even if you know how many persons there will be in Singapore, you can't say how many houses they will need. Will they buy it? Or will they say, 'oh, I'm not certain because the economy is not looking good or the politics are not certain, well, I'll hold off'? But when the market goes up, it goes up with a vengeance and we've paid the political price, we learn from it."

In the 90-minute question and answer session, Prime Minister Lee also tackled a number of issues which included whether the wide-ranging social nets in Singapore would encourage citizens to become more dependent and if Singapore needs more space for discussion.

Mr Lee is of the view that the government needs to do more but he wants the government to be helping from behind the scenes, as opposed to Singaporeans expecting the government to jump in all the time.

On why there is still a need to moderate social space involving social media, for example, Mr Lee said the online community in particular is not moderating itself.

Extreme views are put out and responses and disapprovals are also extreme. So this cannot be left to itself.

Mr Lee said: "We don't believe the community in the social space, especially online, moderates itself. It doesn't happen anywhere in the world.

"You have views going to extremes and when people respond to their views, they may respond in an extreme way, and when people decide to disapprove of something which was inappropriate, the disapproval can also happen in an extreme way.

"It's in the nature of the medium, the way the interactions work and that's the reason why we think it cannot be completely left by itself."

- CNA/ir

Sunday, January 27, 2013

20130128 Temasek Chief - An Enabler to Revive Singapore

20130128 Temasek Chief - An Enabler to Revive Singapore Recovery

Doing the right thing by the right person, for the wrong purpose will invite heartache, failures, disasters..


An Engineer, if pursuing Profit, without improving efficiency, effectiveness, efficacy (relevance) will fail, must fail.
An Engineer, if innovate, continuously innovating better, handier, economical, elegant products and services for more people, this engineer will be noted, celebrated and modeled after by many, even down the history.

I feel very much offended when
"Singapore has nothing for its economy, except rental income from Temasek"

the President of a leading University Alumni Association told me:

Latter, a dynamic leader told me:
"My rental go up 80% when my factory building was transferred from JTC to Maple Tree"

Then a one man machine shop who is able to produce what most people cannot produce, told me:
"My workshop rental contract state that every year rental up more than 10%"

Other than rental, what can Temasek do?

For those who want to confirmed what they suspect Singapore is in, you may read and advise me
20130129 State Singapore is In

Temasek cannot count on M&A

M&A took a center stage during 80s and 90s when many inventions matured, ready to be mass produced, marketed. They need money to build factories, buy equipments, joint strength.

But we did not see great successes in M&A in the recent years, after economy comes to a stagnation - as predicted in 2001.

Those that tried to take short cut, Sony - Ericsson, HP's acquisition of Compaq did not pull them out from the wood and their endless failed acquisitions.
Facts stark naked in front of us told us that even world leader in their industries failed in making good value judgement, and none of them has brought profit, but great losses are many.

Those that employed foreigners, Olympus, Nissan, Sony... did they fair better?

Whereas, Samsung, Hua Wei, did they do the above (M&A, Foreigners Presidents), or strive with their best effort, improving their efficiency, effectiveness, efficacy to come up with elegant product.
They earned superior positioning, casting shadow on Apple, overtaking bigger, world famous telcos equipment suppliers....

To assist us to have a right scope...

....we have invested much more in mobile communications, our wireless communication lab was a huge team in a block of building in AMK, next to Motorola...
....we were world leading producer of display (Sony Spec)
....we were world largest data storage manufacturer with largest national research effort in Data Storage Institute...
....we invited the world leader in smart phone 3Coms

Where are we?
Today, which part of the computer, handphone, we can certainly said it is made by us, Singaporeans?
The key of our failing is we do not control our own destiny by having our own enterprises.
Which city produce bankers that are celebrated decades after they died? Singapore.
Which bankers we invited do the bank better?
We do not even cherish our own contract manufacturers... Foxcon now larger than our once pride electronics/plastics contract manufacturers.

PM's desire of more manufacturing cannot be real,

1 without investigating why mutli-storey factory buildings do not reduce factory rentals by one quarter if the building is more than 4 storey high? (he must start with Defu relocation.)
德福路的工厂会被多层工厂取代, 租金会大幅度降低吗?李总理说我们土地有限,但多层建筑比填海还能能增加更多可用面积。 如果多层不能降低我们的成本,干嘛费时费力费金钱牺牲选票牺牲厂商存活的几率!)

2. without investigating why we stop secondary school metal workshop, electrical workshop?
3 without realign Bio-tech industries years after our Great Founder want to recover the huge investment in Bio-tech?
4. without providing a way that we can benefit from bio-tech (this solutions i will provide)
5. without listing what are the industries we need to focus on
6. what are the key obstacles and enablers our businesses facing...... than political excuses, e.g. more foreigners...
    These are survival of today and tomorrow.
    These are more important than investigating on how Teo Ho Ping can do the AIMs without PMO informed, Party Secretary and Chairman's approval - those are doing of the past.

    Why M&A is not Profitable

    Above merely state the fact that M&A are not profitable, even domain expert of the industry failed in recent M&A (e.g. HP..)

    2001, i wrote and informed a great engineer that this engineer will be leading Temasek, because:
    1. Technology innovation has come to a stagnation.
    2. Technology no longer able to drive world economy.
    3. Technology era has accumulated over abundance wealth (OAW, latter coined, Post Industrialization Dynamos PiD, Solvere, Autumn 2009, ISBN 9810833558)
    4. OAW found no real profitable project to invest in - plenty of cheap money, interest rate will go negative.
    5. Excessive brain will fabricate wars.
    6. The next war will be in Afghan (hand written note handed before 2001 Spe 11, after 20010401 Hainan incident between US and China military aircrafts)

    Wars and Negative interest rate are man's creation, it is not governed by law of nature, so the harm will be bottomless.
    Money too much, projects too few, what to merge?
    How can M&A produce wealth?
    if PM Lee is able to accept Singaporean's input, would he be so lost at making such frantic decisions that bring such chaos to Singapore?

    Detecting what is Profitable

    The only way to overcome these destruction is to create bigger industries than electronics to keep now world larger pool of brains and labors employed, employed in constructive work.

    2001, while i go and explore what are the new industries adequate to do the above, advising Temasek will hold the following industries:
    1. Retails
    2. Telcos Services
    3. Banking & Finance
    4. Media
    (Warren Buffet included rating agencies as his investment and a key instruments)

    These will provide us earliest information and in-depth knowledge of the world market, opportunities and threats, location and players...

    I thank Mr Dhanabalan for effecting the above.
    But with clear explanation of the state of world economy and obvious danger, it is beyond my expectation that such appointment was to gain more profit.
    Clearly stated in the article, that there is too much money, interest rate (for that matter profit) can be fabricated.
    Clearly stated holding banks, telcos is to feel the pulse of world economy. Do Thailand, Indonesia, Australia banks and telcos help you to feel the pulse of world economy?
    Is it we have no courage to invest in real big banks?
    or is it we are aiming for profits, even world largest Private Banker UBS?

    Long before the collapse of world market, i already kept 3PM Lee reminded of the coming of these crises, by placing the above article "Real Economy..."  in "Cognose" Winter 2005 ISBN 9810513757, hand delivered.

    This is again followed by series of articles... 

    What we can conclude here is
    Doing the right thing by the right person, for the wrong purpose will invite heartache, failures, disasters...

    What is Clearly Profitable

    Two stages are needed.

    Infrastructure and Public Services
    Infrastructure  (rail, bus, telecomms, power, water, city planning) are keys to the reliable, competitive operations of businesses.
    1. The lost of basic discipline in design, maintenance is one that must be addressed.
    2. Our public officers are paid higher salary, so there is no reason why state run infrastructure cannot attract good people.
    3. Duplication of infrastructure, manpower, (even competing for FA cup broadcast licence) do not justify there is cost saving in running these by private.
    4. Complex and wasteful management, (e.g. Starhub need to pay to use conduit of Singtel to run cables...)
    5. Poor Fault Tolerant (recent failures of M1 is just one more complex case. SMRT cannot mobilize SBS buses during breakdown is another.)
    The hottest competition for best performance is not between Singtel and M1, but two Vice Presidents competing to succeed a President. And Singtel, SMRT, Singapore Technologies, DBS Presidents have the hope to lead Temasek.

    So it is time for Temasek to take control, leadership to instill discipline, effectiveness, efficiency of all infrastructure operators of Singapore, so that we can be once again be the most reliable, cheapest, fastest provider for all businesses - utility, transportation, communication, town planning.

    It is these that will bring the world leading enterprises, NGOs, richest and most powerful persons to choose Singapore as one of their bases, or better the most critical office that is capable of crises handling and recovery.

    It is the only way that we can fraction our real estate cost, transport and communication cost to win over industries that create jobs for the highly educated Singaporeans, than chambermaids, drivers that we sacrifice our chaste, our over the grave promises to get casinos here.

    These is the first step for Temasek.
    This can be done without nationalizing bus companies, MRT.
    This is the key that nation becomes the biggest employer of voters.
    This will lay the platform for Temasek to be invited to sit on boards of world leading enterprises without paying money from our reserve.
    This will lead to a brilliant engineer leaving a trail for others to remember, follow.

    More will follow when this is done.

    Next will be
    addressing why M MOT 400m walkway is a good solution but is a solution costing money, without improving economy.
    More than 500 m comfortable walking distance can be accomplished profitably, for residents, public transport operators - this again has been provided to LKY as Dotted G, which he converted to Global Dot Sg without follow up.

    How to design public housing by reducing land, material usage, improving lighting, ventilation, aesthetics, functions etc.
    How to increase use of low strength material for non-load bearing applications become possibilities.
    Recent use of wood for composite floor panel has been proven short life-span decade ago by civil engineer Professors in NUS when MND MOS Lee Yi Shyan was in NUS Chemical Engineering.
    I hope MOS MND cherish and remember those who mentored him.

    Saturday, January 26, 2013

    20130126 Key to avoid Singapore collapse by PAP's Lightning - Right Direction

    20130126  Key to avoid Singapore collapse by PAP's Lightning - Right Direction

    Singapore's founders formed one unique party, party symbolized by Lightning.

    We know lightning is destructive - common sense & experience told us so.
    It has only very rare occasions that the power of lightning was detected, but not harvested for humanity usage. Many died in these experiments.

    Singapore founding fathers were fortunate to have complementing strength, and they jointly identified a right direction for growth - disciplined approach in the development of capabilities.
    They accomplished celebrated success in lightning speed.

    It is noted by a retired chief of civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow that Goh Keng Swee is the only wealth creator among all the Founders. I noticed Mr Ngiam used "is" or  did i make a mistake.

    Goh can create wealth because he carefully planed and carried and see through the development of our capabilities, our infrastructure...

    Naturally, if Goh is the only wealth creator, after Mr Goh left, not only we are no longer creating wealth, our wealth depleting, our infrastructure falling apart in front of our eyes - is this what we witnessed?

    It is just as rapid, as decisive as lightning.
    We advanced to first world nation in lightning speed.
    We falling into disarray equally fast.
    Two years ago, when diplomats did not agreed with such foresight.
    Today no one disagreed.

    I come, not to discredit the 3PM Lee Hsien Loong.
    Since 2001 i have given direct input to him, and unfortunately such input was misapplied. I understand his limitation and constrains, anyone in such position and yet shouldering such responsibilities worthy to feel sorry.
    I feel sorry for Singaporeans to see sunset as early as 3pm on an easy nation on the tropics.

    Exactly ten years after failing to quietly helping 3PM from failing, i started the blog.

    It take good guidance from man and heaven sent that i started this blog, to share what the PM can do and did not accomplished.
    So that by 4PM, Singapore will not see dark night, but bright day rising.

    To prevent Singapore collapse, i will present how Singapore can advance forward to be a model worthy for the world to emulate.

    I cannot agree with Mr Ngiam Tong Dow that Singapore can be second tier city like Boston.
    Boston has two world top Universities, Harvard and MIT. How many world heads of government, heads of states, key officers of leading enterprises were educated there, sharing their experience from there.
    Boston is unique and unassailable, it is not second tier.

    I cannot agree with Mr Ngiam that Singapore can choose to be second.
    Singapore cannot choose to be second because, we have no capital and resources to be second to win any contracts for our export oriented economy, an economy without own enterprises.
    Worse, major enterprises (native or foreign) are led by foreigners.

    World is tightly connected, we are merely subcontractor, if we are second in ability, quality, pricing, we will never win any contracts.

    So we must choose a few points that Singapore can be first in the world to win a living for ourselves.
    These points are not formed overnights, but over 13 years of observations, analysis, foresighted event written down, supported by inventions, patents, that are applied by other nations, but ignored, rejected, or misapplied by Singapore officers.
    I feel sorry for those officers affected, many of them were despised by Singaporeans.
    I must shoulder part of this failure, as i failed to persuade 3PM, despite accurate prediction of time, space and magnitude of happenings.
    All these cannot be done by man alone, i must thank heavenly blessing.
    Just like we escape death from serious illness (which i had), not by our ability, but by heavenly granted grace.

    Lightning is swift and mighty. Its immense power if harnessed can do great things.
    Ostrich did not buried their heads when facing threats, else ostrich would not exist today.
    Lightning is faster, mightier than Ostrich.

    I come to assist Singapore Prime Minister to secure survival, growth and happy living for Singaporeans.
    I love Singapore Prime Minister to succeed, not that he deserves to succeed, but if he failed, Singaporeans will be worse than American Red Indians.

    Maya Last day did not come on 20121221
    Mayan vanished the day they failed to defend themselves.
    It was centuries before 2012.

    Mayan did not invite, pay the education, appoint to key positions migrants to the their land !
    Yet Mayan vanished.
    Singapore is doing a more drastic experiment unprecedented in human history.

    A previous article on Temasek will be rewritten as the first of the series.

    Chief of Temasek is one great Engineer deserves to contribute more to Singapore and the world at large.

    Any act to prevent Singaporeans from helping leaders to avoid fatal mistakes, to bring peace, prosperity and happiness to Singaporeans is worse than treason.